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Lake Erie Charter Captain Dave Adams of D & D Charters answers questions and provides tips and insights into fishing the region.
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April 22, 2003
Captain Dave was asked:
Lake Erie water level, will there be enough water?
"Do you think we'll have enough water this year?" asked John, who was fishing a local trout stream with me. "I heard it's still low. A couple of years ago, my outdrive hit just outside the marina, and I don't want to go through that again."
"Yea, it's low," I said. "The last time I checked, around the end of March, Lake Erie was eight inches below normal. But it's too early to predict what will happen this year because normal fluctuation, evaporation, and spring rain will control the 2003 water level."
On an average year Lake Erie rises and falls about 14 inches. During 2002, however, it rose and fell a bit more, about 20 inches. This was the result of favorable hydrologic conditions in late 2001 and early 2002, and it resulted in a marked recovery of lake levels, which hovered around average through the first half of the year.
The recovery was short lived. A hot and dry 2002 summer canceled earlier improvements in lake levels. By the end of the year, Lake Erie's level had fallen back to about eight inches below average, and more than two inches lower than the December 2001 level.
The 2002/03 winter was long and cold, with heavy snow, and Lake Erie did freeze, which did help because it slowed evaporation. But, will this help?
"[Having Lake Erie freeze] is the best thing that could have happened," said Cynthia Sellinger, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrologist in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
But hydrologists viewed that snow that fell in the Great Lakes region as a mirage because it was lake-effect.
Cold air masses form snow that robs moisture from the lakes before they freeze over, Sellinger explained. Also, unless it is part of a snowpack that thaws gradually, lakes do not get that water back in a quick snow-and-melt cycle because the snow usually evaporates before it can replenish a water body, she said.
The Great Lakes basin had a dry fall and winter. In fact, according to preliminary reports, the Great Lakes basin precipitation for February was only 58% of average.
"It's been very dry in the Michigan-Huron [lakes] basin the past six months," said Marie Strum, water resources engineer with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Detroit.
Environment Canada reported that unless the Great Lakes basin experiences a wet spring, expect water levels to remain below average on each of the Great Lakes over the next six months and likely lower than they were during 2002.
Water levels on the middle lakes will likely be similar to, or possibly lower than, those experienced during 2001. No new record lows are expected on the lakes at this time, however, near-record low levels on Lakes Michigan-Huron are possible. If wet conditions return to the basin, lakes Erie and Ontario could recover to near average levels. Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron levels; however, would remain below average even if high water supplies are received over the next six months, they added.
According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which prepares a six-month forecast of lake levels. For June 2003, the Corps forecasted Lake Erie will be eight to 10 inches below the long-term mean monthly level for June, which is about nine inches lower than the June 2002 levels. The forecast levels for the next six-month period (January - June 2003) are comparable to the levels of 2001.
Weekly updates can be viewed at the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District site, at the following link:
A lot of information is available. But I'm not sure what the Lake Erie water level will be because only Mother Nature knows. Yet, I remain optimistic. The lake froze this year, which reduced evaporation and if we have a normal spring, levels will rebound.
If not, keep those props up, be careful when entering the marinas, and good fishing.
Capt. Dave Adams
Dave Adams is an author and professional charter captain who operates D & D Charters on the Pennsylvania waters of Lake Erie.
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